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11/5/2009 Americans’ saving rate has climbed to the highest level in a decade. According to usdebtclock.org, we are saving approximately $54,000 per minute. But that is not all. We are paying down debt at a rate of $100,000 per minute! Consumers and businesses are deleveraging (paying down debt) while keeping expenses in check. Sadly, the federal government is going in the other direction. The federal government is borrowing money at an unprecedented pace. Deficits skyrocket as spending increases. The rate of federal government spending is now at $5 million per minute. Multiply that by 60 minutes in an hour… 24 hours a day… 365 days in a year; you’re talking real money! This year’s deficit is expected to come in at $1.4 trillion. Our national debt is now $11.9 trillion. That is equal to $38,000 per citizen, or $86,000 per taxpayer. With that in mind, we can’t rely on the federal government. We need to protect ourselves financially. How will you manage your money more successfully? Should you rebuild your retirement accounts? Contribute to your kids’ college funds? Buy a new home? Increase your rainy day fund? Which should you do first, and in what order? There never seems to be enough savings to go around. Financial experts recommend saving 10%, or up to 20% of your income. Easier said than done. Even with our new found frugality, few are saving at this rate. David Laibson, a Harvard economist estimates that about 10% of Americans save too much; 30% have good savings habits, while the rest spend like there is no tomorrow. Rebuilding your financial infrastructure takes planning, and implementation of new habits. First, reduce your consumer debt. Some credit cards can charge over 20% interest. Every dollar used to pay down debt saves you 20% in interest. Paying down debt is a guaranteed return on your money. The next step is building a rainy day fund. Emergencies do come up, often when we can least afford them. The roof may leak, the refrigerator breaks down, the car needs a new transmission, etc. An emergency fund should be equal to three to six months of income. In these times when the unemployment rate is at 10%, an emergency fund equal to six months of income is prudent. After your rainy day fund, consider saving for future fun. By saving a little each paycheck, you can have money for clothes, vacations, a new car, or (even a new big screen HD, 1080P TV). Believe it or not, the most common budget buster is clothes. Most people don’t budget for the fun stuff. They end up using credit cards and piling up the debt. So, establish a fun fund so you can do fun things without using your credit. Saving for retirement is problematic. It requires giving up something today for a future benefit. This kind of delayed gratification requires discipline. To help, practice creative visualization. Picture yourself in retirement, living the life you have always wanted… playing golf… traveling… or spending time with your grandchildren. Being financially secure enough to be able to take care of yourself, without being a burden, is a great achievement. Retirement plans can help you put more gold in your golden years. They also provide significant tax savings. With 401ks and other pension programs, you use pre-tax dollars to fund the plan. Your contributions reduce your income tax burden saving you taxes now. The amount of savings is equivalent to your tax bracket. For example, for every $10,000 in contributions to your 401k, you save $2,500 in a 25% tax bracket. Earnings grow tax deferred, (no current taxes are due on your earnings). Only when you begin taking withdrawals, are they subject to ordinary income tax. Many employers provide for a match equal to a percentage of your contribution, sweetening the pot further. A 3% match on $10,000 would increase your 401k by $13,000 per year. When you consider the tax savings of $2,500 (in the 25 percent tax bracket), your cost is $7,500, while your account grows by $13,000. Converting your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is worth considering. Roth IRA contributions are not tax deductible like traditional IRAs, but grow tax free, and produce tax-free income. Consult with your wealth manager about the possible advantages of converting your IRA to a Roth IRA. If you are just starting out in life, make savings a habit. Put away the same amount each paycheck. Increase your savings as your income grows. Start by putting aside money each week towards your emergency fund, and your fun account. If you have unsecured debt, pay that off first. Start slowly with your retirement account and build as you go. If you have a family, consider saving for college. If your kids are young, all the better… you have more time for the account to grow. Coordinating your retirement savings with your college plan makes perfect sense. If you have fully funded an emergency account and a fun account, consider splitting your savings between your retirement fund and a 529 College Savings Plan. If you are an empty nester, focus on retirement. For the years 2009 and 2010, you can make contributions up to $16,500 per year towards your 401k. If you are over age 50, that amount jumps to $22,000 per year. Contribute as much as you can. Look into purchasing long-term care insurance to protect your nest egg. The younger you are, the lower the premiums. If retired, you will need a different plan. Up to now, it was all about accumulation. Now, it is all about income. Start by making sure you are receiving the maximum amount of social security retirement benefits. This is more difficult than it sounds. Visiting with a professional wealth manager may help you earn more. Consider rearranging your portfolio. Think of your portfolio as being divided between short term (0 – 5 years), medium term (5 – 10 years), and long term (10+ years). If your financial situation is sound, you may consider contributing to your grandchildren’s 529 College Savings Plan. Counting on the debt-ridden federal government for your financial security is a dangerous proposition. It’s up to us. Self reliance and preparation is the way to financial security. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals. Please note: If you should make withdrawals from your IRA or your 401k prior to the age of 59½, you may be subject to taxes and penalties. 10/8/2009On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers collapsed. It was the final straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back… just weeks before the Government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The repercussions turned a mild recession into a crisis. The financial stress was caused by a number of factors, but none as damaging as the bursting of the real estate bubble. Home values fell and foreclosures hit all time highs. Financial institutions were in trouble. The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy exposed the depth of the financial problems. The very next day, the Government (taxpayers) bailed out AIG. Next, the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Congress and the President looked for ways to bail out the big money center banks and TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) was created. On October 3, 2009, TARP celebrated its first birthday. There were no parties or fanfare. This milestone is best forgotten. The initial plan was to buy “troubled assets” (mortgages) from the big money center banks. The goal was to free up capital and increase bank lending. In the process, the taxpayer would earn interest on those assets. Many believed the $700 billion “investment” could be repaid and even make a small profit. Despite these moves, credit all but disappeared. Business virtually stopped and the Dow fell. By the end of September 30, 2008, the Dow was at 8,600 and falling fast. Today, the Dow is hovering around 9,600 and has been climbing since March. Within a month, the program morphed. Instead of buying “troubled” assets, TARP funds were used to buy preferred stocks of financial institutions. The hope was that TARP would improve bank capitalization and increase lending. Banks taking TARP funds were required to pay a 5% dividend and issue warrants to the Government. To date, $365 billion has been allocated with $444 billion left. So far, only $70 billion has been returned. Earlier in 2009, TARP morphed once again. TARP funds which were designated for financial institutions were used to bailout Chrysler and General Motors. Despite the public outcry against further bailouts, it appears that TARP will be extended to October, 2010. While the Treasury Department is handing out bailout money and taking over major corporations, don’t expect the same for us. We are on our own, and we know it. The savings rate has climbed from 0% to over 7%. While many economists expect the consumer will return to “the good old days” when we spent more than we earned, financed through credit cards and home loans. Don’t believe it. This great recession has created a major paradigm shift. The new model most resembles the behavior that was so pervasive during the depression… careful spending, personal savings, and a greater reliance on ourselves. Extravagance is out and prudence is the standard. This is not just a passing fad. It is here to stay! The national economy will have to recover without the normal post-recession consumer spending bump. This slower consumer spending will lead to slower growth. But what is good for the national economy is not always good for your personal financial recovery. Your financial well being comes from increased savings and investments, paying down or eliminating consumer debt, and greater prudence in shopping behavior. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals. 8/25/2009 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of unemployed in July was 9.4%. Since the start of the recession in December of 2007, the number of unemployed people has skyrocketed to 6.7 million. Most economists believe that the recession is coming to an end. Despite this good news, economists believe that the unemployment rate will climb through the first half of 2010. Only then will the employment picture start to improve. What should you do if you or someone you know is worried about receiving a pink slip? If you have time, start by paying off high interest consumer debt (credit cards) and avoid future debt. Do not make any unnecessary purchases. Hoard your cash. Make sure your emergency fund equals six months of your expenses. Focus on upgrading your skills. Make yourself a more valuable asset to your employer or future employers. What should you do if you receive that dreaded pink slip? First - understand that feeling a sense of shock, fear, and even anger are normal human reactions. But, you must not let that hold you back. The best weapon against fear is to take action. Second – review your severance package. Request a copy of your company’s severance policy before you meet with your boss or the HR Director. Be prepared to negotiate for the best possible package. The best time to negotiate a severance package is at the start of your employment. Live and learn! Third – file for unemployment benefits. It will take some time to process your claim so file as soon as possible. If you were fired with cause or quit, you will not be entitled to unemployment benefits. Fourth – review your financial situation. Use a money coach or financial advisor. They can help you evaluate where you are, and whether you should liquidate some of your assets. They will also be able to help you prioritize which assets should be liquidated first, while keeping an eye on the tax ramifications. Your retirement account should be reviewed to determine if you should rollover your 401k assets into your own IRA. Fifth – continue to develop your skills. Take classes at the local community college and sign up for your industry’s advanced certifications. Consider changing your career path to something more akin to your likes and desires. Consider going it alone. More businesses are created during difficult economic times than in boom times. Sixth – review your insurance coverage. Go over all your options with your money coach or financial advisor. Look at all types of insurance coverage. Take a hard look at your health insurance. You may be able to bargain for the continuation of employer-paid health insurance for a period of time. A Federal law called COBRA requires that group health plans with 20 or more employees must allow a terminated employee to continue that coverage for 18 months. You may be able to purchase your own policy at a lower rate, so choose carefully. Your children may qualify for the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) which provides health insurance to children whose families earn too much for Medicare. Check your state’s requirements. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals. 7/16/2009This has been one of the longest recessions in over 50 years, but it may end this summer. This was the finding of BNA’s mid-year survey of 23 well-known economists. Most Americans won’t recognize the recovery until the middle of 2010. This delay is due to the fact that the unemployment rate will continue to rise through the end of this year and beginning of next year. The survey indicates that most economists predict that economic growth will be slow throughout 2010. They predict a GDP growth rate of just 2% for next year. At that rate, the economy is unlikely to be able to make any significant gains in employment. They expect the 10-year Treasury bond rate will rise to 4.33%. As rates rise, Treasury bond prices fall. Other economists disagree. Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist and Robert Stein, Senior Economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Illinois, see a much more robust recovery. They are forecasting a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for the second half of 2009, and 4.5% for 2010. They base their predictions on the following five assumptions. First - Inventory Levels. While businesses have been selling off current inventories, manufacturing has slowed to a crawl. As inventories get reduced, manufacturing will pick up, although it will not be the same as the pre-recessionary level, but it will be significantly higher than its previous lows. Second – Trade Deficit. They project continued declines in the trade deficit. As the trade gap narrows, exports add to our GDP. Third – Housing Market. They expect home building to bottom later this year, and rise in 2010. Housing starts are now only one-third of the long-term trend. Any uptick will add to the GDP. Fourth - Government Spending. Currently, only about 10% of the $887 billion dollar stimulus package has been spent. The largest portion is scheduled to be spent in 2010, adding to that year’s GDP. Fifth – Business Investment. Plant and equipment upgrades are expected to turn around much faster than previously thought. Neither Wesbury nor Stein believes that consumer spending will increase dramatically. They forecast that real consumption will rise only .6% on an annual basis from the end of 2007 to the end of 2010. Corporate earnings are likely to increase in the next three months, according to the second quarter 2009 Northern Trust Global Advisors survey of investment managers. Thirty-nine percent of participants think corporate earnings will improve in the next three months, compared to only just one percent who felt that way last quarter. What the economists believe is far less important than what you do for yourself and your family. The economic recovery will be meaningless to you if you are not positioned to take advantage of it. Americans have been shaken by this dramatic downturn. But, Americans have a long tradition of rising to the occasion in times of trouble. We recognize what is truly important, i.e., our loved ones, family and friends. We tighten up our boot straps and move forward. In the end, the American character will be the driving force that pulls us out of this great recession. Take the time now to review your situation. Look at your personal circumstances, debts, investments, and insurance needs. Determine if you need to make any changes. Your Money Concepts’ financial advisor stands ready to assist you. We will be happy to work with you to help insure all your financial pieces of the puzzle are in the right order. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals. Technorati Tags: Economics7/14/2009Saving is the key to your personal financial recovery. Whether you are a retiree looking for ways to stretch your dollar, or a young family just starting out in life, saving is critical. But what are the best ways to save? We will examine a number of options you can employ on your road to economic recovery. 1. Stop Spending Money. Well, that’s not really practical, but you can substantially reduce your monthly spending by doing one simple thing… leave your credit cards at home. Multiple studies show that we are far more likely to make purchases on a credit card. When using a credit card, we are far more likely to make more purchases and be less concerned about the price we pay. Spending cash hurts. There is something in our brains that does not want to part with cash. That something is missing when it comes to credit cards. Leave the cards at home and your wallet will thank you. 2. Never Buy Retail. With today’s economy, there is no reason to pay full retail. Sales are everywhere. But, just because some item is on sale does not mean you should buy it. Make lists before you go shopping. If an item is not on your list, don’t buy it. Lists have proven to be one of the best tools to keep your spending in check. With large ticket items, make a list of what you will buy this year. Then, wait for deep discount sales. Avoid add-ons which retailers try to tack on to the sale. 3. Pay Yourself First. The single best way to save is by making your monthly savings the first bill you pay every month. It is not fancy, but it works. Decide what you are going to save each month, then make that your top priority. Next, pay your fixed expenses… mortgage/rent, utilities, and food. Then, you can spend anything you have left or increase your savings. Start small, and build. Your goal should be saving 10% to 15% of your salary. Begin at a level that makes sense, and schedule increases systematically in the future, i.e., every six months. 4. Use Two Different Types of Savings. First, set up a “put and take” account. This is an account where you put money in knowing that you will take it out in the near future. Every year, expenses come up that are outside of your monthly budget. Maybe the washer breaks down, or the car needs a new transmission. These things happen. So, part of your monthly savings should be set aside for unforeseen expenses. The second type of savings should be in a “put and keep” account. This account is not to be touched. It is to be left alone to grow for your long-term future. 5. Set Up an Emergency Account. You should have at least 6 months of income in a liquid investment for possible emergencies. The purpose of this fund is to provide for you in the event of disability, job loss, or serious illness. Bank accounts and money market funds are good choices. 6. Pay Down Those Credit Cards. While this may not technically be savings, each dollar of debt you pay off will save you between 18% - 22% interest. Americans have become credit card addicts. We typically own more than 10 cards and carry over $8,000 in debt. This debt adds up to billions of dollars of interest that we are wasting each year. Many people only pay the minimum balance. At that rate, they will be paying off their cards for years and years to come. Set yourself free. Pay off those cards! Start by not using them anymore. Then, pay two, three or four times the minimum payment. The higher the payments, the quicker you will be out of debt and the more interest you will save. 7. Use Tax Advantage Savings. (401ks, 403bs, Company Pension Plans) If your company offers a defined contribution plan (401k), enroll in it. If you are already in your company’s plan, look into increasing your contributions. For 2009, you can contribute up to $16,500 ($22,000 if over age 50). If your company has a matching program, all the better. But if it does not, continue anyway. Every dollar you contribute will lower your taxable wage and, therefore, your tax bill. Meanwhile, the earnings in the 401k are tax deferred. Your goal should be to increase your contributions on a scheduled basis until you hit the maximum. Your retired self will be glad you did. 8. Look into a Roth IRA. If you qualify, a Roth IRA offers unique features. Currently, the annual contribution limit is $5,000 per year ($6,000 if over 50). Contributions are not deductible, but earnings grow tax free. After five years, or age 59½ (whichever is later), you can begin tax-free withdrawals for life. The Roth IRA does not require you to begin withdrawals at age 70 ½ like traditional IRAs. So, if you so choose, you can keep your money in the Roth, earning tax-free returns for your entire life, leaving a larger legacy to your heirs. 9. Check Your Insurance Coverage. We all need insurance. Whether it is to protect our home, car or other personal possessions. We also need to protect our families against the financial loss from the death of a breadwinner or the catastrophic cost of long-term care. While we all need it, we should not be paying more than necessary. Check all of your insurance coverages. Is it enough? Is it too much? Are the costs reasonable compared to the competition? Do an insurance review once a year. It could make a huge difference down the road. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals. Please note: If you should make withdrawals from your IRA or your 401k prior to the age of 59½, you may be subject to taxes and penalties. 7/6/2009July is the perfect time for a mid-year review of your personal finances and tax outlook. By spending some time now, you can save money later. Let’s take a look at some of the issues you can review. -
Evaluate Savings: One of the best ways to save is through the various tax advantage savings plans. The most common is the 401k program. Every dollar, up to $16,500 ($22,000 for those over age 50) deposited into a 401k reduces your taxable income, and therefore, your tax bill. If you are not currently participating… START! If you are already participating, make it your goal to increase your contributions over time until you hit the maximum.
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Evaluate Your Portfolios: How are your assets allocated? Should you consider moving part or all? Now that the dust has settled, it is a great time to review your options. A word of caution… make sure you get a full disclosure of all risks and fees before investing. Review your investment portfolio with your financial advisor before making any decisions.
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Tax Savings Strategies: Many activities, such as home improvements, may provide tax benefits. The Energy Tax Act offers tax incentives for energy efficient products installed in your home. The benefit allows taxpayers’ credits up to 30% of the cost of the improvements. There is a maximum credit of $1,500 for 2009. Consult your tax advisor for more information.
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Review Your Withholdings: Many Americans end up owing taxes because they did not have enough withheld during the year. This year will likely be worse than normal. The Make Work Pay Bill provision of the stimulus package automatically lowered withholdings for most taxpayers. The problem is many of those same taxpayers will not be entitled to the $400 (single) or $800 (for couples filing jointly) tax break. If you are one of these individuals, you could find yourself $800 short in your withholdings. Check with your tax advisor for help.
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Buying a Home: If you are a first-time homebuyer, or if you have not owned a home in the last three years, you can claim a refundable credit of 10% of the purchase price, up to $8,000. This credit applies to homes purchased after December 31, 2008 through December 1, 2009.
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Buying a New Car: New for 2009, you can claim sales taxes paid on the purchase of a new car. There are also additional credits, up to $7,500 for the purchasing of a hybrid or “plug-in” car. Congress has just passed this so-called, “cash for clunker” bill. Under this legislation, you can turn in a gas guzzling car and receive between $3,500 - $4,500 in tax credits toward the purchase of a high-mileage vehicle. There are a number of requirements that will make it difficult for most Americans to qualify, but if you do, it is a great opportunity.
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Commit to Getting Organized: Start filing important statements and receipts. Safely store all tax-related documents, financial statements and insurance contracts. If possible, keep an electronic copy of all important documents. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals. Please note: If you should make withdrawals from your 401k prior to the age of 59½, you may be subject to taxes and penalties. 6/29/2009The American savings rate continues to climb. For the last two decades, the savings rate hovered around zero percent. Now, it has leaped to over 6%. The recession and the credit freeze seem to be the turning point. But, is this change in the savings rate temporary? That is the big question. Economists are concerned that without a spike in consumer spending, the economic recovery will be less robust. While the overall economy might suffer a bit from a more restrained consumer, your personal economic recovery will benefit from your increased savings. Fifty years ago, the American savings rate was 12%. During the recent economic boom times, more and more people stopped saving and increased their consumer debt. Credit cards became ubiquitous. People refinanced their mortgages, taking equity out of their homes, spending it on consumer products. Businesses too, got caught up in the credit frenzy, over leveraging their books. Now, both individuals and businesses are cutting back. Americans are going back to basics. They are paying off debt and increasing their savings. Ben Franklin was quoted as saying, “that a penny saved is a penny earned”. That is good, old fashion common sense. We need to save for rainy days. But, Franklin did not live in times with income and social security taxes. In today’s environment, a dollar saved is more like a $1.30 earned. After all, you must first earn $1.30 to net $1.00 after taxes. Paying off debt is the best action anyone can make. For every dollar of credit card debt you reduce, you save 18% - 20% in interest. It is virtually a guaranteed return on your dollar. Today, Americans are paying down debt at an increasing clip. These changes in attitude do not seem temporary. A structural change is occurring in our society. Americans are remembering what is really important... family and friends… not possessions. Flamboyant excess is out. The virtue of “all things in moderation” has taken its place. Does this structural change spell trouble for the economy? If Americans continue to spend less and save more, that will likely slow the economic recovery. But, capitalism needs capital as fuel for long-term growth. Over the last twenty years, American business relied on foreign investments as its capital source. An increased savings rate will mean more “home-grown” capital sources for American business, which, in the long term, will be a positive for economic growth. In summary, Americans increased saving rate might slow the economic recovery in the short term, but it produces positive benefits for the economy as a whole. But, for your personal economic recovery, increasing your savings and paying off debt will reap nice rewards. Financial advisors generally agree that a 10% savings rate is the benchmark. This rate should increase as you approach retirement. The key to saving is to pay yourself first. Put your monthly savings ahead of all your bills, and then you can spend whatever is left. Please feel free to pass this on to anyone you feel might benefit. We appreciate all of your referrals.
Providers of Financial Services Since 1979 All Securities through Money Concepts Capital Corp. Member FINRA / SIPC Money Concepts Advisory Service is a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC Investments are not FDIC or NCUA Insured, May Lose Value, No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee 11440 North Jog Road Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418 This e-mail, including attachments, is intended for the exclusive use of the addressee and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, any dissemination, use, distribution or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please notify me via return e-mail and permanently delete the original and destroy all copies. Thank you. On Monday, March 23, 2009, the Treasury Department announced their new program to help struggling banks with their toxic mortgage assets. The first change was in semantics, toxic assets will be, henceforth, called legacy assets. But all kidding aside, this is serious business. Our economic recovery will depend on the stabilization of the housing market, the restructuring of banks, and in getting credit flowing once again to credit worthy businesses and consumers. The plan has three parts. The first part is run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). It covers troubled mortgages, but not the CDOs… (bundled mortgage securities)… “legacy assets”. These mortgages are three or more months delinquent. The plan offers very favorable financing to private investors to buy these mortgages. The Treasury gave this example: An investor could pay as little as $6.00 for a loan that had an original value of $100. These bad loans are a problem for banks. It is estimated that there are some $230 billion in loans that are overdue by 90 or more days. By comparison, the “legacy assets” (CDOs or bundled mortgage securities) amount to $1.7 trillion. The second part of the program will be run by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is expanding existing programs, buying up more of those securitized mortgages. Once again, the plan is to sell those assets to the private sector at favorable financing rates and provide some guarantees. The third part of the program has to do with commercial mortgage-backed securities and other asset-backed securities that were once rated AAA, but have since been downgraded. The Treasury hopes to sell these assets to five public-private investment funds that will be created through open bidding amongst investment firms. To finance the plan, the government will put up to $1.00 per $1.00 from private investors, plus finance up to another $5.00 for a 6-1 leverage. The plan allocates $75 to $100 billion from TARP Capital. With favorable financing for investors, the Treasury estimates up to $500 billion in purchasing power will be created by this public-private program. The Treasury has the potential to expand the program up to $1 trillion. Sample Investment Under the Legacy Loans Program Step 1: If a bank has a pool of residential mortgages with $100 face value that it is seeking to divest, the bank would approach the FDIC. Step 2: The FDIC would determine, according to the above process, that they would be willing to leverage the pool at a 6-to-1 debt-to-equity ratio. Step 3: The pool would then be auctioned by the FDIC, with several private sector bidders submitting bids. The highest bid from the private sector – in this example, $84 – would be the winner and would form a Public-Private Investment Fund to purchase the pool of mortgages. Step 4: Of this $84 purchase price, the FDIC would provide guarantees for $72 of financing, leaving $12 of equity. Step 5: The Treasury would then provide 50% of the equity funding required on a side-by-side basis with the investor. In this example, Treasury would invest approximately $6, with the private investor contributing $6. Step 6: The private investor would then manage the servicing of the asset pool and the timing of its disposition on an ongoing basis – using asset managers approved and subject to oversight by the FDIC. 6/25/2009The American savings rate continues to climb. For the last two decades, the savings rate hovered around zero percent. Now, it has leaped to over 6%. The recession and the credit freeze seem to be the turning point. But, is this change in the savings rate temporary? That is the big question. Economists are concerned that without a spike in consumer spending, the economic recovery will be less robust. While the overall economy might suffer a bit from a more restrained consumer, your personal economic recovery will benefit from your increased savings. Fifty years ago, the American savings rate was 12%. During the recent economic boom times, more and more people stopped saving and increased their consumer debt. Credit cards became ubiquitous. People refinanced their mortgages, taking equity out of their homes, spending it on consumer products. Businesses too, got caught up in the credit frenzy, over leveraging their books. Now, both individuals and businesses are cutting back. Americans are going back to basics. They are paying off debt and increasing their savings. Ben Franklin was quoted as saying, “that a penny saved is a penny earned”. That is good, old fashion common sense. We need to save for rainy days. But, Franklin did not live in times with income and social security taxes. In today’s environment, a dollar saved is more like a $1.30 earned. After all, you must first earn $1.30 to net $1.00 after taxes. Paying off debt is the best action anyone can make. For every dollar of credit card debt you reduce, you save 18% - 20% in interest. It is virtually a guaranteed return on your dollar. Today, Americans are paying down debt at an increasing clip. These changes in attitude do not seem temporary. A structural change is occurring in our society. Americans are remembering what is really important... family and friends… not possessions. Flamboyant excess is out. The virtue of “all things in moderation” has taken its place. Does this structural change spell trouble for the economy? If Americans continue to spend less and save more, that will likely slow the economic recovery. But, capitalism needs capital as fuel for long-term growth. Over the last twenty years, American business relied on foreign investments as its capital source. An increased savings rate will mean more “home-grown” capital sources for American business, which, in the long term, will be a positive for economic growth. In summary, Americans increased saving rate might slow the economic recovery in the short term, but it produces positive benefits for the economy as a whole. But, for your personal economic recovery, increasing your savings and paying off debt will reap nice rewards. Financial advisors generally agree that a 10% savings rate is the benchmark. This rate should increase as you approach retirement. The key to saving is to pay yourself first. Put your monthly savings ahead of all your bills, and then you can spend whatever is left. 6/24/2009 According to a survey released today by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets (SIFMA), the economy is expected to start growing in the third quarter of 2009, but the expansion will be slow through the first half of 2010. The economic survey of economists from the association’s member firms predict a .8 percent GDP for the July through September period, accelerating to 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The prediction for 2010 is forecasted at 2.1 percent. The survey, which was conducted from May 27th – June 12th, also showed the majority of respondents did not believe inflation was an immediate threat. The core inflation rate, which excludes energy and food, is predicted to be 1.6 percent in 2009 and 1.2 percent in 2010.
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